Pakistan’s chance at becoming a Regional Super Power

As we grew up we have all heard the tales from about how Pakistan was once a shining beacon of progress and development within South Asia. How in 1960s Pakistan’s economic growth inspired some of today’s most successful nations such as South Korea to copy our model, how Pakistan airlines became the leader in aviation helping build up todays industry giants such as Emirates, or how Pakistan was at a position where it provided the German state with financial loans and so on, however, this did not last. Soon Pakistan fell from glory to its own internal political struggle and geopolitics surrounding the US USSR cold war. In other words Pakistan faced widespread internal corruption, foreign-backed insurgency, tense border relationships and multiple sanctions slowing down economic progress. We now have faced many financial and domestic problems that need to be addressed unless we want to go through another decade in relative poverty while those around us grow, Pakistan needed a second chance.

That second chance has now arrived. This chance is of course Pakistan’s strategic geography and the long term needs of those around (China, Tajikistan, Afghanistan). China wishes to connect with the Arabian Sea using its belt and road initiative (CPEC), Central Asian countries (Land locked up north) being termed as the new middle east (fossil fuel reserves) need a reliable trade path to the Arabian Sea and Afghanistan with in which $3 trillion worth of rare earth mineral reserves have been found also needs a trade route. Pakistan sits at the very center of these needs due to its geography and has a chance to gain significant geopolitical and economic influence. This is a chance for Pakistan to not only become the new vital "silk road" of multiple countries profiting off the economic activity but also attract investment in order to develop its own industries massively reducing the need for importing goods (such as cars, mobile phones) while increasing exports. It is very important that all political entities with in the nation put aside their differences now and work together to capitalize on this opportunity putting Pakistan back on track towards rapid development. If we succeed, all segments of society will benefit, the rich will grow richer, the poor will climb out of poverty jumping into middle class, quality of life will increase and the dream of long lasting EU type peace in South Asia can be achieved.

China Pakistan Economic Corridor and Pakistan

As tensions continue to rise over the South China Sea disputes (Japan, Korea, Philippines) and India militarizing its Andaman and Nicobar archipelago near the Malacca strait, Chinese maritime shipping routes on which the countries economy is highly dependent upon have come under threat. Realizing the need for new alternative routes many years ago China had initiated its belt and road initiative where it would use land routes to bypass the long sea route and recreate the silk road, at the very center of this down south is Pakistan and CPEC. Now due to issues intensifying China’s dependence upon the CPEC will only rise and giving Pakistan more leverage to work on when it comes to dealing with China. As the projects are currently under construction Pakistani policy makers must work harder now to secure favorable terms in future deals and start planning on setting up new industries in Pakistan which overlap CPEC and future trends. This is important especially as of right now as the a big part of the world is under lockdown due to COVID-19 pandemic giving Pakistan the time it needs to develop and enter new markets to increase exports. Already we are seeing positive effects in economic trends as CPEC solved has solved a big part of the energy crisis resulting in years old closed up mills restarting and orders coming in beyond their manufacturing capacity. If more industries are set up to utilize the excess energy along with the older reopened ones, Pakistan can again reenter the world stage as a big exporter of various goods. 

If done properly, Pakistan’s financial issues will become much more relaxed as exports jump closer to imports balancing out the deficit and the increase in quality of wealth and services will increase within the country. However, this isn't an easy thing to achieve and comes with issues that need resolving. The largest among them are persuading internal investors to set up said industries and dealing with the ongoing Indian-sponsored insurgency within Baluchistan. Terrorist organizations create uncertainty & instability, something which discourages investors and will create difficulty for not only industrialization but also CPEC progress. Security forces will have to speed up in containing the remnants of Indian-funded mercenaries (Baloch separatist insurgents) who are the root cause of little development in the region. Once he threat has been properly neutralized, then large-scale commercial activity take place and this is something Pakistan will have to deal with quickly.

Pakistan and Central Asia

Just around twenty eight years ago, just as when the Soviet Afghan war ended and USSR collapse, Pakistan once tried to become a regional superpower by connecting itself with the newly independent Central Asian countries (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan Turkmenistan etc). The idea was to invest into these countries infrastructure and ultimately connect them with Pakistan helping them gain access to the Arabian Sea and export goods in the process becoming the main trade route, however as the Afghan civil war had just started the plans got dropped as risk grew dramatically. However despite continued conflict in the region even now the need for an accessible trade route to the sea remains and policy makers are reviving plans to integrate those central Asian countries with CPEC granting them access to Karachi and Gwadar ports. Uzbekistan is the first central Asian state Pakistan has approached recently with this end goal in mind and later Tajikistan, if success is seen realistic then others will soon join in. This is a very important step forward for all countries involved as this will solve major issues, for Pakistan it will be able to finally import fossil fuels at much cheaper rates than it does now from middle eastern countries (Saudi Arabia for example) meanwhile for the land locked central Asian countries, they will finally gain an efficient route to the Arabian sea. 

If all the plans go well, Pakistan might be able to develop land routes for direct trade with Russia as it is already well connected with central Asia. Over all this is a make or break chance for Pakistan as if it can capture central Asian market routes, the diplomatic influence and soft power it will gain is big in scale. Pakistan now has a chance to become a regional super power having significant diplomatic and economic influence, reviving the twenty nine year-old aspirations to become a regional superpower. Of course, this too comes with risks and achieving it is easier said than done. The biggest risk in making this a reality is that any massive that route is to be created between Pakistan and Central Asian requires it to go through Afghanistan’s (A war torn country) Wakhan Corridor. If Pakistan wants to connect with central Asia and achieve the above stated goals it will need to include Afghanistan with in the plans, this means resolving the border disputes which are difficult as long as current Afghan government stays hostile . Fortunately as the USA (NATO in general) desires to pull out of Afghanistan after peace talks, the Afghan government is left with few options which gives Pakistan leverage over Afghan demands. Furthermore, Afghanistan itself in need of an efficient sea route as well, something Pakistan is in an ideal position to provide. Using these advantages Pakistani leaders need to fish in Afghans and make central Asian connectivity a reality.

Pakistan and Afghanistan 

It is common knowledge that Pakistan and Afghanistan have bitter relations and the main is the Ethnically motivated Afghan government’s refusal to accept the internationally recognized border (They do not accept the Durand Line). Due to this the border has always remained tense, and the flow of goods has always been irregular causing issues, but given recent developments this might change soon Recently due to geographical surveys having been conducted within Afghanistan, studies have shown that the country is sitting above around $3 trillion worth of rare earth mineral reserves which have great commercial use for the world. This is also Afghanistan’s chance to build up its economy and recover from years of downfall changing its fate. But to actually export, it will need Pakistani ports. The Afghan government has little choice in this matter as the Iranian routes are full of needless complications and the Turkish route is inefficient due to being too far. This gives Pakistan a unique advantage as it gain some leverage over the Afghan government in negotiations, furthermore this leverage is further reinforced as America is about to pull out of Afghanistan leaving the government little choice but to cooperate or risk falling into civil war again. If the complications around tense relations can be settled, Pakistan will have a chance to resolve a major border dispute on favorable terms while gaining another country to add into its ports list of customers whose export will depend upon those said ports. It does not matter of who extracts the mineral resources from Afghanistan (Chinese companies, American or local), the cargo will travel through Pakistan and this will be profitable for Pakistan due to economic activity. Alongside that, integration of infrastructure will mean Pakistan can increase its exports to Afghanistan and create multiple route connections with Central Asia further increasing Pakistani soft power.

In other words if Pakistan can successfully lure in Afghanistan by using the recent circumstances and geopolitical developments, long-term goals of securing the western border will be achieved as well as extra-economic and diplomatic power will be secured in terms of dependency Bit this again comes with many complications, mostly related to Afghan internal affairs. Before Afghanistan can build up an effective mining industry ready for export, it needs internal stability which also means ending the  conflict as quick as possible. Moreover massive infrastructure projects and industrialization to link the country together will be needed to centralize the large-scale mineral exporting. This means a joint government settlement between the Taliban and Afghan national government needs to take place, something that seems unlikely at the moment. However it can be done, one such example is how Irish IRA members became integrated into the national parliament after the ceasefire with the British government. Whatever the case Pakistani policy maker have to take advantage of current circumstances and secure its longstanding geopolitical goals. 

Conclusion

Pakistan has been given a massive opportunity to use and strengthen its economy to rise again as a regional superpower. Pakistan has the necessary manpower, resources, and ideal geographical location to rapidly develop and fulfill the dreams of Pakistan's founding fathers. Yes, it isn't an easy task and there is no use in pretending that domestic and international issues can be resolved overnight as each opportunity comes with issues that need resolving. However, if a solution can be found, it will result in long term benefit of all involved sides. Already we have seen some progress of integration in form of the Pakistan-Iran-Turkey railway project or the TAPI pipeline but faster progress needs to be made if we are to fully capitalize the new emerging markets. A strong national action plan is needed so that a well thought out roadmap is created and executed where Pakistan's large youth population is properly trained and developed, national industries around reformed and infrastructure integration with neighboring countries is done as soon as possible. Pakistan does  have the means tp do it, hence it is about time we use the advantage to rise and take our place in the world together.